All eyes on NVDA

AI stocks battered heading into today’s Nvidia earnings, consumer confidence plummets to eight-month low, Fed-watchdog plans broad US central bank review, U.S. Steel, Nippon execs court Trump to salvage deal, and signs of economic doubt emerge in US...

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Market Briefing
February 26, 2025

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Good morning.

The Fast Five → AI stocks battered heading into today’s Nvidia earnings, consumer confidence plummets to eight-month low, Fed-watchdog plans broad US central bank review, U.S. Steel, Nippon execs court Trump to salvage deal, and signs of economic doubt emerge in US…

There’s a Fatal Flaw at the Heart of the AI Revolution…

With AI continuing to explode in popularity, tech companies are all scrambling to build hundreds of new mega data centers to keep up with the demand for training and using new AI models.

But that’s where the problem is. I call it “The AI Keystone”.

Calendar: (all times ET) - Full Calendar

  • Today:
    New home sales, 10:00A

  • Tomorrow:
    Initial jobless claims, 8:30A
    Durable-goods orders, 8:30A

Your 5-minute briefing for Wednesday, February 26:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 2/25/2025.

Pre-Market:

US Investor % Bullish Sentiment:
↑ 29.19% for Week of February 20 2025

Previous week: 28.42%. Updates every Friday.

Market Wrap:

  • Futures up after S&P 500’s 4-day slide; Nvidia earnings in focus.

  • S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -1.4%, Dow +0.4%—weak consumer confidence weighed.

  • Nvidia Q4 earnings today, AI trade momentum in question.

  • Earnings ahead: Lowe’s, TJX, Salesforce.

  • Key data: New home sales, building permits, PCE inflation (Fri).

EARNINGS

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

  • Today: eBay (EBAY), MARA (MARA), Paramount (PARA)

    • Nvidia (NVDA) - earnings of $.85 per share (+61.5% YoY) on $38.1B revenue (+72.5% YoY)

    • Salesforce (CRM) - earnings of $2.61 per share (+14% YoY) on $10.1B revenue (+8.1% YoY)

  • Thursday: Duolingo (DUOL), HP (HPQ)

HEADLINES

Stocks in the US and Asia fell Tuesday after Trump vowed to go ahead with tariffs against Mexico and Canada.

AI-linked shares fell on Tuesday, in lead-up to AI bellwether Nvidia's (NVDA.O), opens new tab quarterly earnings, which could offer clarity on demand and justify the sector's lofty valuations.

  • Wall St ends mixed in the face of mounting uncertainties (more)

  • Consumer confidence plummets to eight-month low (more)

  • Bessent vows to re-privatize an economy that is 'brittle underneath' (more)

  • Fed-watchdog task force in Congress plans broad US central bank review (more)

  • US house prices increase strongly in December (more)

  • Oil steadies in the $60s as dour economic sentiment weighs (more)

  • U.S. Steel, Nippon execs court Trump officials in bid to salvage deal (more)

  • Trump wants Canada’s Keystone XL oil pipeline built ‘now (more)

  • Nvidia to report earnings amid infrastructure spending, DeepSeek concerns (more)

  • Tesla's market value tumbles below $1 trillion (more)

  • Supermicro stock soars in extended trading after meeting filing deadline (more)

  • Home Depot snaps its epic losing streak (more)

  • Some ‘Trump trades’ are starting to roll over as the stock market sputters (more)

TOGETHER WITH PACASO

Zillow's Co-Founder Wishes They Did This Before The IPO

Spencer Rascoff co-founded Zillow, scaling it into a $16b real estate giant.

But everyday investors couldn’t invest until after the IPO, missing early gains.

"I wish we had done a round accessible to retail investors prior to Zillow's IPO," Spencer said.

Now he’s doing just that. Spencer has teamed up with another Zillow exec to launch Pacaso. Pacaso’s co-ownership marketplace is disrupting the $1.3t vacation home market. And unlike Zillow, you can invest in Pacaso as a private company.

With $100m+ in gross profits and rapid international expansion, Pacaso is scaling fast. Investors like SoftBank, Maveron, and more are already on board. Join them as a Pacaso shareholder.

Paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. There’s no guarantee that Pacaso will file for an IPO.

DEALFLOW

M+A | Investments

  • Baidu buys JOYY's China live-streaming unit for $2.1B in digital video push (more)

  • IonQ in talks to buy ID Quantique for approx $250M (more)

VC

  • Metronome, a usage-based billing platform, raised $50M in Series C funding (more)

  • Auditoria.AI, a company specializing in agentic AI for the Office of the CFO, raised $38M in Series B funding (more)

  • Edera, a company providing workload isolation technology, raised $15M in Series A funding (more)

  • Goose, a tech company developing new operating system for pet care providers, raised $13.4M in Seed funding (more)

  • Actual Veggies, a company known for its chef-crafted veggie burgers and vegetable-forward products, raised $7M in Series A funding (more)

  • Lockchain.ai, an AI-powered blockchain risk management platform, raised $5M in Series A funding (more)

  • Adaptive Insurance, a climate resiliency company, raised $5M in funding (more)

  • Mitico, a carbon capture technology company, raised $4.3M in Seed funding (more)

  • Lizzy Care, a health tech platform for dementia and memory care, raised $2.6M in Seed funding (more)

  • VetVerifi, a platform for streamlining compliance across the pet care economy, raised $2.8M in Seed funding (more)

  • Visalaw.ai, a platform improving immigration law through generative AI, raises Seed funding (more)

  • Tereform, a textile recycling startup, raised an undisclosed amount in Seed funding (more)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin drops below $90,000 as global jitters combine with Bybit hack (more)

  • Microstrategy stock down 16% YTD amid Bitcoin rout (more)

  • GameStop urged to convert Its $5B cash Into Bitcoin by Strive's CEO (more)

BULLISH BITES

🤞 Trump’s SALT tax promise hinges on an obscure loophole.

🐓 Larry Ellison’s half-billion-dollar quest to change farming has been a bust.

🤑 Meet seven of America’s top personal finance influencers.

🦞 How private equity played a role in Red Lobster and TGI Fridays bankruptcies.

DAILY SHARES

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