Investors react to Biden exit

Investors react to Biden pulling out of race, markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ with Biden out, markets broaden as investors sell tech winners, a market rotation of historic proportions is taking shape, and who gets the $96M sitting in Biden’s campaign account?

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Market Briefing
July 22, 2024

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Good morning.

The Fast Five → Investors react to Biden pulling out of race, markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ with Biden out, markets broaden as investors sell tech winners, a market rotation of historic proportions is taking shape, and who gets the $96M sitting in Biden’s campaign account?

Calendar: (all times ET)

WED, 7/24:

New home sales, 10:00 AM

THU, 7/25:

GDP, 8:30 AM
Initial jobless claims, 8:30 AM
Durable-goods orders, 8:30 AM

FRI, 7/26:

PCE index, 8:30 AM
Consumer sentiment, 10:00 AM

Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, July 22:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 7/19/2024. Bitcoin as of 7/21/2024.

Pre-Market:

US Investor % Bullish Sentiment:
↑ 52.75% for Wk of July 18 2024 (Last week: 49.18%)

Chart updates every Friday.

Market Recap:

  • S&P futures up 0.23% after worst weekly loss since April.

  • Dow futures +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.42%.

  • Investors rotating out of megacap tech into smaller names.

  • Biden dropped out of race, endorses VP Harris.

  • Analysts see increased likelihood of Trump win in November.

  • Traders expect a 93% chance of Fed rate cut in September.

  • Big tech sold off; small caps and industrials favored.

EARNINGS

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

  • Today: Verizon Communications (VZ)

  • Tuesday: Albertsons (ACI), Capital One Financial (COF), Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Phillip Morris Int'l (PM), Tesla (TSLA), UPS (UPS), Visa (V)

    • Alphabet (GOOGL) - earnings of $1.84 per share (+27.8% YoY) on $84.2B revenue (+12.9% YoY)

  • Wednesday: AT&T (T), Lennox Int'l (LII), IBM (IBM)

    • Chipotle (CMG) - earnings of $.32 per share (+28% YoY) on $2.9B revenue (+16.3% YoY)

  • Thursday: AbbVie (ABBV), Honeywell (HON), Southwest Air (LUV)

  • Friday: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

    • 3M (MMM) - earnings of $1.68 per share (-22.6% YoY) on $5.9B revenue (-25.4% YoY)

Full earnings calendar here.

HEADLINES

Biden ended his reelection campaign on Sunday after fellow Democrats lost faith in his mental acuity and ability to beat Trump, leaving the presidential race in uncharted territory.

Biden's exit from the presidential race on Sunday could prompt investors to unwind trades betting that a Republican victory would increase US fiscal and inflationary pressures.

  • Who gets the $96M sitting in Biden’s campaign account? (more)

  • Soros backs Harris as other Wall St democrats want a contest (more)

  • China social media embraces Trump after Harris steps into race (more)

  • Geopolitics overtakes inflation at top of sovereign wealth fund worry list (more)

  • Gold jumps to record as traders ramp up bets on Fed rate pivot (more)

  • Dollar eases as Biden ends re-election bid (more)

  • Gold climbs as election chaos escalates (more)

  • China surprises with cuts to key rates to support fragile economy (more)

  • Markets broaden as investors sell tech winners (more)

  • Bond markets haunted by bigger debt loads and erratic politics (more)

  • Secret bank ratings show US regulator’s concern on handling risk (more)

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  • Access scalable credit lines from $500 to $15M

- We’re on a short break this week -
The Dealflow, Crypto sections
will resume on Monday 7/29.

BULLISH BITES

🚀 Second Wave of AI Profits: How to get in
📈 Shifting: A stock market rotation of historic proportions is taking shape.
💻 Exposed: The software patch that shook the world.
🤦🏻‍♂️ Listen Up: The man who predicted the 2008 collapse issues new warning.
🚨 Warning: Americans mistakenly think this new Biden law won’t affect them.

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