The case for cuts

The case for rate cuts is growing, investors choose safe havens over equities, oil jumps more than 7% on supply risk, bond investors look to Fed for guidance, and Google splits with Scale AI after Meta deal...

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Market Briefing
June 16, 2025

Good morning.

The Fast Five → The case for rate cuts is growing, investors choose safe havens over equities, oil jumps more than 7% on supply risk, bond investors look to Fed for guidance, and Google splits with Scale AI after Meta deal…

Calendar: (all times ET) - Full Calendar

  • Today:
    None watched

  • Tomorrow:
    Retail sales, 8:30A
    Industrial production, 9:15A
    Business inventories, 10:00A

Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, June 16:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 6/13/2025. Bitcoin as of 6/15/2025.

Pre-Market:

US Investor % Bullish Sentiment:
↑ 36.67% for Week of JUN 12 2025

Previous week: 32.66%.

Market Wrap:

  • • Futures: Dow +63 pts (+0.15%), S&P +0.24%, Nasdaq +0.36%
    • Friday: Dow -700 pts
    • WTI crude +1.11% to $73.79 on Middle East tensions
    • Gold rises on safe-haven demand
    • Fed decision Wed; 97% odds for no rate change
    • Trump pressures Fed for rate cut; rising oil dims easing odds

EARNINGS

Light earnings week. Here’s what we’re watching:

Changes Ahead for Social Security?

According to a Boston-based institutional financial research firm serving clients like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and BlackRock, “The way income will be calculated for Social Security is about to change forever.”

Right now the firm is sounding the alarm on huge changes ahead.

They add, “Our research confirms: AI is already inside the SSA, with a full federal action plan due by July 22.”

HEADLINES

Investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold, as oil prices surged after Iran retaliated against Israel's biggest-ever military strike against the major crude producer.

Tariff inflation has been muted, and cracks are appearing in the labor market

  • Bond investors look to Fed for guidance on timing of rate cuts (more)

  • Treasury yields nudge higher as Israel-Iran conflict puts markets on edge (more)

  • Gulf markets fall as Israel-Iran conflict escalates (more)

  • Gold prices retreat as traders secure profits after near 2-month high (more)

  • Oil jumps more than 7% on supply risk from Israel-Iran conflict (more)

  • China's May retail sales grow at fastest pace since 2023 (more)

  • Trump approves Nippon Steel's $14.9B purchase of US Steel (more)

    • ‘Golden share’ in US Steel gives Trump extraordinary control (more)

  • Google, Scale AI's largest customer, plans split after Meta deal (more)

  • Boeing trims projection for 20-year jet demand (more)

  • Accel expecting $2.5 B+ return after Meta’s large investment in Scale AI (more)

  • Santos soars over 15% on ADNOC-led group’s $18.7B takeover bid (more)

  • Kering shares up, Renault down as CEO de Meo quits the carmaker (more)

DEALFLOW

M+A | Investments

  • US Steel sale to Nippon Steel poised to close by June 18

  • Google’s $32B Wiz deal under DOJ antitrust review

  • Bunge nears China approval for $8.2B Viterra merger

  • 23andMe reaches agreement for sale of business to TTAM

  • MRO Corp. acquired Q‑Centrix, a clinical data management platform

  • Noma Security, an AI compliance and security startup, received a strategic investment

VC

  • Gecko Robotics, an AI and robotics inspection company, raised its Series D round, valuing the company at $1.25 B

  • Canary Technologies, a hospitality AI platform, raised $80 M in Series D funding

  • Conveyor, a gen AI-powered platform for automating security reviews and RFP workflows, raised $20 M in Series B funding

  • Tombot, a robotic companion-tech company, raised $6.1 M in Series A funding

CRYPTO

  • SEC taps new director of trading and markets who has crypto ties (more)

  • Bitcoin becoming ‘more central’ to portfolios as its volatility cools (more)

  • Trump earned $57.7M from crypto venture, disclosure shows (more)

BULLISH BITES

🚨 Why July 22nd could mean big changes for Social Security * 

🪖 Trump parade displays military power amid national protests.

🤖 AI is disrupting the advertising business in a big way.

🤔 What’s behind PayPal’s Will Ferrell ads?

🥘 The turbotière: a piece of cookware so ludicrously specific that even most billionaires don’t know it exists.

DAILY SHARES

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