Traders bet on Fed

Fed to kick off rate cuts, record wagers on Fed cuts at risk if Powell doesn’t go big, Harris-Trump election has Big Tech ‘at a crossroads’, Microsoft and BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion, and Steve Cohen stops trading for hedge fund Point72...

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Market Briefing
September 18, 2024

Good morning.

The Fast Five → Fed to kick off rate cuts, record wagers on Fed cuts at risk if Powell doesn’t go big, Harris-Trump election has Big Tech ‘at a crossroads’, Microsoft and BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion, and Steve Cohen stops trading for hedge fund Point72…

📈 Investor Tip: Soros and Simons Back $7 AI Stock *
From Behind The Markets

Calendar: (all times ET) - Full calendar here

  • Today:
    FOMC interest-rate decision, 2:00 pm
    Fed Chair Powell press conference, 2:30 pm

  • Tomorrow:
    Initial jobless claims, 8:30 am
    Existing home sales, 10:00A pm

Your 5-minute briefing for Wednesday, September 18:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 9/17/2024.

Pre-Market:

US Investor % Bullish Sentiment:
↓ 39.80% for Week of September 12 2024

Last week: 45.33%. Updates every Friday.

Market Wrap:

  • Stock futures flat as Wall Street awaits Fed rate cut.

  • S&P +0.03%, Dow down 16 points, Nasdaq +0.2%.

  • Fed expected to cut rates Wednesday, ending 2022 hike cycle.

  • Rate cuts may boost earnings; S&P up 18% in 2024.

  • Traders split: 63% expect 50 bps cut, 37% expect 25 bps.

EARNINGS

Here’s what we’re watching this week:

  • Today: 

  • Thursday: Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Darden Restaurants (DRI)

    • FedEx (FDX) - earnings of $4.85 per share (+6.6% YoY) on $22B revenue (+3.8% YoY)

    • Lennar (LEN) - earnings of $3.63 per share (-6.2% YoY) on $9.2B revenue (+8.4% YoY)

Full earnings calendar here.

HEADLINES

Close decision between a quarter-point cut and a bigger move. Investors will scrutinize press conference, updated forecasts.

Since peaking at $1.5 trillion in 2021, tech transaction volume has plummeted, dropping to $544 billion last year, according to Dealogic. So far in 2024, that number sits at $465 billion.

  • Record wagers on Fed cuts at risk if Powell fails to go big (more)

  • US economy on solid ground as retail sales surprise on the upside (more)

  • US manufacturing output rebounds in August (more)

  • Dollar strengthens ahead of Fed move (more)

  • Lobbying efforts against China tariffs are growing in Western countries (more)

  • Top US antitrust cop says DOJ will overhaul how it reviews bank deals (more)

  • Nippon Steel to get extension, pushing deal review past election (more)

  • SpaceX Starlink has 2,500 airplanes under contract after United megadeal (more)

  • Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100B to invest in AI data centers (more)

  • Steve Cohen stops trading for hedge fund Point72 (more)

  • Alaska-Hawaiian merger cleared by regulator (more)

  • Ozempic ‘very likely’ target for next US price cut (more)

  • Amazon using gen AI to deliver faster—smarter robots, better routes (more)

  • OpenAI’s new model is better at reasoning and, occasionally, deceiving (more)

A Message from Behind The Markets

Fortune: Nexus Technology has “ignited a gold rush”

George Soros...

Ken Fisher...

Jim Simons...

They're all pouring billions into a new bleeding-edge technology I call "Nexus."

Business Insider estimates it could grow 8,966% in the near future...

And Goldman Sachs says it could grow 100X bigger than ChatGPT in the next four years.

Even better...

There's one tiny company holding key patents on this bleeding-edge technology.

And it's currently trading for only $7...

Giving you a chance to get in at the ground floor.

- sponsored message -

DEALFLOW

M+A | Investments

  • IBM acquires Kubernetes cost optimization startup Kubecost (more)

  • Flutter bets on Italian gambling market with $2.6B Snaitech deal (more)

  • KKR leads $1.4B private credit loan for USIC Holdings (more)

  • Philip Morris to sell Vectura for $198M after health shift criticism (more)

  • RainFocus, an event marketing platform, acquired WebEvents Global, an event technology and data analytics firm (more)

  • Vyne Medical, a provider of healthcare communication process management, acquired Extract Systems, a provider of advanced data extraction solutions (more)

  • C5MI Insight, a provider of supply chain systems implementations and digital solutions, received an investment from DC Capital Partners (more)

  • BlackPoint IT Services, a provider of managed IT and cybersecurity services, received an investment from Agellus Capital (more)

VC

  • Engine, a business travel tech company, raised $140M in Series C funding, at $2.1B valuation (more)

  • Pairwise, a tech company specializing in gene editing to improve plant breeding, raised $40M in Series C funding (more)

  • GreenLite, a construction tech company, raised $28.5M in Series A funding (more)

  • Orb, a billing platform for businesses to monetize software, raised $25M in Series B funding (more)

  • Roots Automation, a creator of the AI-powered Digital Coworker and InsurGPT™, raised $22.2M in funding (more)

  • Aerwave, a managed WiFi platform for multifamily owners, raised $20M in Series B funding (more)

  • EasyDMARC, an email security firm, raised $20M in Series A funding (more)

  • BlackCloak, a company specializing in digital executive protection, raised $17M in a Series B funding (more)

  • DeltaStream, a provider of a serverless stream processing platform, raised $15M in Series A funding (more)

  • RunSafe Security, provider of a patented process to immunize software from cyberattacks, raised $12M in Series B funding (more)

  • Clasp, a retention-driven recruitment platform, raised over $10M in funding (more)

  • Martian, a tech company that has built a patent-pending LLM router, raised $9M in funding (more)

  • Cybord, a visual AI solution ensuring electronic component quality, authenticity, and traceability, raised $8.7M in Series A funding (more)

  • Hgen, a company making clean hydrogen to decarbonize heavy industry, raised $5M in Seed funding (more)

  • Hydden, an identity visibility company, raised $4.4M in Seed funding. The round was led by Access Venture Partners (more)

  • PinPoint Analytics, a startup providing AI to streamline the road construction industry’s bidding process, raised $3.2M in Seed funding (more)

  • Dunya Analytics, science-based digital tools that simplify the management of biodiversity risks, raised $1.2M in Seed funding (more)

  • Kasisto, a conversational AI platform for the financial services industry, raised an undisclosed amount in Series D funding (more)

  • Sceye, an aerospace company specializing in high-altitude platform systems, raised an undisclosed amount in Series C funding (more)

  • Forge, a platform for community-driven game marketing and player engagement, received funding from strategic investors (more)

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin gains 5% to $61K ahead of Fed (more)

  • Sony joins a crypto push in Japan as calls grow for looser rules (more)

  • Crypto project World Liberty Financial confirms plan for token (more)

BULLISH BITES

📊 A tale of two markets: Divergence amid the post–Labor Day sell-off.

😎 The Buzz: Snap’s new Spectacles inch closer to compelling AR.

🏆 Rank: These are the best business schools in the world.

😬 Jargon Alert: The winner of the worst workplace phrase is …

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