Two cuts penciled in

Fed holds rates steady but eyes two more cuts this year, Trump calls for 10 Fed rate cuts, investors see quick market drop if US joins Iran conflict, Microsoft abandons high-stakes talks with OpenAI, and the US added 1,000 new millionaires a day last year...

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Good morning.

The Fast Five Fed holds rates steady but eyes two more cuts this year, Trump calls for 10 Fed rate cuts, investors see quick market drop if US joins Iran conflict, Microsoft abandons high-stakes talks with OpenAI, and the US added 1,000 new millionaires a day last year…

Good News for Stocks
50-year Wall Street veteran, Marc Chaikin is stepping forward to share why history gives him 90% historical confidence that stocks will end 2025 up.

However, he also has bad news: the same data also tells him the REAL market crash will likely arrive in 2026. Go here to see the month and day he estimates it will begin » (from Chaikin Analytics)

Calendar: (all times ET) - Full Calendar

  • Today:
    Consumer sentiment, 10:00A

  • Monday:
    none watched

Your 5-minute briefing for Friday, June 20:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 6/18/2025.

Pre-Market:

US Investor % Bullish Sentiment:
↑ 36.67% for Week of JUN 12 2025

Previous week: 32.66%.

Market Wrap:

• Dow -44 pts (-0.10%) to 42,171.66; S&P -0.03%; Nasdaq +0.13%
• Fed holds rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected
• Signals 2 cuts this year, but sees slower growth + hotter inflation
• Core inflation forecast raised to 3.1%; 2025 GDP cut to 1.4%
• Trump: Iran wants to negotiate, may send delegation to D.C.
• Iran warns US of “irreparable damage” if it enters the conflict

EARNINGS

Light earnings week. Here’s what we’re watching:

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HEADLINES

Inflation expectations are being stoked by the fallout from Washington’s trade war and a burgeoning conflict in the Middle East.

America’s millionaire population grew by 379,000 for a total of 23.8 million, the most of any country, according to a new study by UBS.

  • Stocks struggle, oil up for 3rd week as Trump weighs US action on Iran (more)

  • Investors see quick stock market drop if US joins Israel-Iran conflict (more)

  • Stagflation on the Fed’s mind (more)

    • Trump calls for the equivalent of 10 Fed rate cuts (more)

  • Global IPO activity slumps in 2025 as tariffs, volatility weigh (more)

  • Dollar set to finish week on upbeat note buoyed by safe-haven appeal (more)

    • Some warning signs for US dollar shorts (more)

  • Oil set to rise for third week on escalating Israel-Iran conflict (more)

    • Shell CEO warns of 'huge impact' if Strait of Hormuz blocked (more)

    • Citi: $75-$78/bbl oil prices if war disrupts 1.1M bpd of Iran's oil exports (more)

  • Zero interest rates are back in Europe (more)

  • Trump extends deadline for US TikTok sale to September (more)

  • Microsoft prepared to abandon high-stakes talks with OpenAI (more)

  • Apple eyes using AI to design its chips, technology (more)

  • Tesla asked to delay robotaxi launch by Texas lawmakers (more)

  • Billionaire Dai to pocket $237M from Qualcomm deal (more)

DEALFLOW

M+A | Investments

  • Home Depot seeks to buy GMS in challenge to QXO

  • Fox acquires sports broadcasting platform Caliente TV

  • LA Lakers owners sell majority stake in the team at $10 billion valuation

  • Redwire Corporation acquired Edge Autonomy Intermediate Holdings, LLC

  • Pearson, a lifelong learning company, acquired eDynamic Holdings LP

  • Abacus Group, an IT MSP/MSSP, acquired Entara

VC

  • Teamworks, a sports operating system used by 6,500+ teams, raised $235M in Series F funding at a $1B+ valuation

  • Tennr, an orchestration platform designed to automate workflows in referral-based care, raised $101M in Series C funding

  • Actio Biosciences, a clinical-stage biotech company specializing in genetics and precision medicine, raised $66M in Series B funding

  • Payabli, a payments infrastructure platform for software companies, closed a $28M Series B funding round

  • Fleet, an open device management platform, raised $27M in Series B funding

  • Profound, a platform helping marketers with AI-generated responses, raised $20M in Series A funding

  • Sifflet, a data observability platform, raised $18M in funding

  • Grifin, an app that links investment to daily spending, raised $11M in Series A funding

  • PreciseDx, a breast cancer diagnostic provider powered by AI, raised $11M in additional funding

  • RevelAi Health, a conversational AI platform for musculoskeletal care coordination, raised $3.1M in Seed funding

  • Athena, a generative engine optimization platform provider, raised $2.2M in Seed funding from Y Combinator and others

CRYPTO

  • Coinbase inks deal to allow USDC stablecoin’s use as collateral (more)

  • ‘Stablecoin summer’ as Coinbase, Circle stocks surge on new legislation (more)

  • Trump family’s company cuts stake in World Liberty Financial by 20% (more)

BULLISH BITES

⚠️ 50-year Wall Street quant issues critical warning. * 

🥱 Barbarians no more: Private equity is giant now, and a bit boring.

📉 Billionaire Arnault grapples with biggest slump in LVMH history.

📧 Stop saying ‘hope you’re well’ in emails--do this instead.

🏯 Forget the bullet train – the best way to see Japan is by classic car.

DAILY SHARES

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